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FXUS66 KMFR 071008
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
200 AM PST SAT NOV 7 2009

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG 500MB LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MAINTAIN
A MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN
WEAKENS SUNDAY. THE LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A SHORT WAVE
MOVING ONSHORE AT THIS TIME AND THIS HAS INCREASED SHOWERS MAINLY
OVER NORTHWEST OREGON. A SECOND SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS. LIKE PREVIOUS SHORT WAVES MOVING ONSHORE...THE BEST FORCING
WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST OREGON. ON SUNDAY THE MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW
WEAKENS...SO EXPECT LESS SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND OUR REGION.

FOR MONDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIMILAR BRINGING ANOTHER FRONT TO
THE COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKENS IT MONDAY NIGHT AS IT
MOVES ONSHORE. BOTH THE MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT THE GRADIENTS WILL
NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM...SO NOT EXPECTING HIGH
WINDS ALONG THE COAST.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH
LOCATED OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST TUESDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
SOUTHEAST AND INLAND OVER THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ON FRIDAY ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST INCREASING THE THREAT
OF RAIN AGAIN.

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. LOCAL AREAS OF MVFR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST AND INLAND VICINITY OF ROSEBURG THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH INCREASING SHOWERS.

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ021-ORZ022.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST
SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-PZZ356-PZZ370-PZZ376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ370.

RH/SN