000
FXUS66 KMFR 202247
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
247 PM PST FRI NOV 20 2009

.SHORT TERM...A STRONG COLD FRONT BLEW THREW THE REGION TODAY...CAUSING
STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST...IN THE SHASTA VALLEY...AND ON THE
EAST SIDE. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE CALMED SOME NOW...WITH MANY
PLACES ON THE EAST SIDE NOW GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH. ONE NOTABLE
STRONG WIND OBSERVATION WAS AT ALTURAS WITH A PEAK WIND OF 70 MPH.
SNOW TOTALS SO FAR ARE DIFFICULT TO ASSESS BUT GIVEN SOME REPORTS
AND RECENT WEBCAM IMAGERY...THE TOWN OF MOUNT SHASTA HAS RECEIVED
SEVERAL INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE MOUNTAIN. ALSO...BLY
MOUNTAIN ON THE EAST SIDE HAS RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW...AND MOUNT ASHLAND HAS ABOUT 6 INCHES OF NEW SNOW.  SEVERAL
MORE INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL IN THE CASCADES...SISKIYOUS...AND
THE EAST SIDE TONIGHT BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING.

TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...PRECIPITATION AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH
ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 2500 FEET IN
MANY PLACES ON THE WEST SIDE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER
RECENTLY WITH NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE CWA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING..AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF NEAR 990MB
WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER NORTHERN OREGON OR SOUTHERN WASHINGTON ON
SUNDAY. 60 KNOT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 925 MB OVER COASTAL WATERS ARE
NOTED ON THE LATEST NAM RUN. THIS COULD BE THE THIRD SYSTEM OF
THIS STRENGTH IN THE PAST WEEK. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 4000
TO 5000 FEET ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES. THIS STORM FOCUSES MORE SNOW OVER THE
CASCADES THAN THE SISKIYOUS...BUT WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE THE
EXPECTED SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE UPCOMING MODEL RUNS AS
THEY HAVE SOME VARIANCE IN RECENT RUNS. WIND-RELATED HEADLINES
WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THIS STORM ALONG COASTAL WATERS AND
FAVORED INLAND LOCATIONS. ECMWF...GFS...AND NAM SUGGEST UPPER
RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER OR AND NORTHERN CA MONDAY. KEENE

.LONG TERM...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BUILDING A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE REGION TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. WE EXPECT
DURING THIS TIME OVERNIGHT AND MORNING VALLEY FOG TO BE COMMON FOR
AT LEAST THE WEST SIDE...WITH FREEZING FOG IN SOME AREAS AS VALLEY
MIN TEMPERATURES DIP WELL INTO THE 30S. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
SHOULD HAVE QUITE NICE WEATHER IN THIS TIME PERIOD WITH PLENTY OF
SUN AND HIGHS NEAR 50. THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS ADVERTISED AND WEVE TRENDED RAIN CHANCES WEST TO EAST IN
THIS PERIOD WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES. STAVISH

AVIATION...FLYING WEATHER TODAY FEATURES MVFR VISIBILITY AND
CEILINGS OVER THE EAST SIDE WITH VFR CEILINGS OVER THE WEST SIDE.
SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES ALONG THE CASCADES...SISKIYOUS...AND
THE EAST SIDE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL
BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
OVER RBG AND MFR WILL LIKELY FALL TO IFR DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS...AND THESE IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY SATURDAY.

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ027-
     ORZ028-ORZ029-ORZ030.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ORZ031.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST SATURDAY FOR ORZ025.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PST SATURDAY FOR CAZ080-
     CAZ081-CAZ084-CAZ085.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ085.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ082-
     CAZ083.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 10 AM TO
     1 PM PST SATURDAY FOR PZZ350-PZZ356-PZZ370-PZZ376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-
     PZZ356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-PZZ356-
     PZZ370-PZZ376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ370.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ370-
     PZZ376.