000
FXUS62 KMHX 071359
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
850 AM EST SAT NOV 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE SUNDAY...AND REMAINED CENTERED OFF
THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST LATE TUESDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 840 AM SATURDAY...AFTER A CHILLY/FROSTY START TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE INTO THE MIDDLE 60S THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK RETURN
FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP LATE. SOME THIN HIGH CIRRUS WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE N...BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH
PRES WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION TODAY...MEANWHILE A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER US FROM THE SW. THE
COMBINATION OF BUILDING RIDGE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL LEAD TO A PLEASANT AFTERNOON WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM SATURDAY...CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE INITIAL SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE REPLACED BY A
SECONDARY HIGH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE NAM AS USUAL IS
TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH A WESTWARD MOVING COASTAL TROUGH LATE
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS/PORTIONS OF THE SE COAST. WE PREFERRED THE GFS WHICH HAS A
WEAKER SYSTEM...FORECASTS LESS QPF AND PLACES THE PRECIPITATION
EMPHASIS TO THE SOUTH. TONIGHTS FORECAST LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
BELOW MOS DUE TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH CLEAR SKIES/CALM
WINDS BUT FORECAST DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 40S SO NUDGED UP LOWS TO
THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S.

MADE NO CHANGES TO TUESDAY AS THE MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTH CAROLINA. MOISTURE FROM TD IDA AND/OR LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO COULD BE ENTRAINED INTO THIS SYSTEM SO WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS AND FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 210 AM SATURDAY...MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE HOW MUCH GULF
MOISTURE AND REMNANTS OF IDA GET ADVECTED NORTH TO INTERACT WITH
FRONTAL SYSTEM MID WEEK. ALSO INTERACTION WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
UPPER LOW WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE FORECAST. THE 00Z GFS IS
FORECASTING LOW PRESSURE OFF GA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
THAT SYSTEM AND SYSTEM IN THE GULF BEING SHUNTED SOUTH DUE TO
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. WILL CONTINUE
POPS TUESDAY NIGHT HIGHEST AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO ALL OF THE
UNCERTAINTY BUT THEN HAVE A DRY AND COOLER FORECAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD AFFECT THE AREA
NEXT WEEKEND.

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM SAT...VFR/SKC THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE UNDER
LOW LEVEL INVERSION THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO FILTER BACK INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AS THE FLOW
TURNS SOUTHERLY AND DEEPENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

.MARINE...
AS OF 130 AM SAT...00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS
THIS WEEKEND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTHWEST.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...JBM/JME
AVIATION...HSA
MARINE...HSA