000
FXUS62 KMHX 221307
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
907 AM EDT MON MAR 22 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE CENTER WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
STALL TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND MOVE
OFFSHORE SATURDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 910 AM MONDAY...INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVED
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN COASTAL PLAINS EARLIER THIS MORNING. BAND
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN CWA. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE OUTER BANKS AND SOUND COUNTIES
THROUGH MIDDAY AS ERN NC REMAINS IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT. LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS MOST UNSTABLE AIR NEAR THE
VIRGINIA BORDER AND THINK ANY TSTMS WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS OUR
CWA. THE BOUNDARY IS DEMARCATED BY MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS MAINLY
IN THE 40S NOW APPROACHING THE CWA FROM THE WEST. THIS DRIER AIR
WILL END THE CONVECTIVE THREAT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH MIDDAY
WITH POPS DROPPING SHARPLY AFTER THAT. MAIN UPDATE TO FORECAST IS
TO ADJUST TIMING ON PRECIP. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL LIKELY BE
FORTHCOMING BY LATE MORNING/NOON TIME.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...NO PRECIP EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS DRY SLOT
IN WAKE OF FRONT CROSSES. LATER TONIGHT AND FIRST PART OF TUE
EXPECT SLIGHT CHC OF SHRA AS UPR LOW MOVES ACROSS. WITH WESTERLY
LOW LVL FLOW NOT EXPECTING MUCH WITH BEST CHCS NRN TIER. AS UPR
LOW MOVES E EXPECT CLOUDS TO DIMINISH LATER TUE WITH MCLR SKIES
LIKELY TUE NIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY 40 TO 45. COOLER TUE WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY 60 TO 65. LOOKS LIKE WILL HAVE ENOUGH MIXING TUE
NIGHT TO KEEP LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR WED WITH
SLIGHT BUMP IN TEMPS/THICKNESSES. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
SINK S WED NT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MORE CLOUDS AND SLIGHT COOLING
FOR INTO THU. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH S BY FRIDAY BEFORE
STALLING OVER THE REGION. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER YET WEAKER UPPER LVL
LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE S PLAINS ALONG THE FRONT...BRINGING
ANOTHER CHC OF RAIN FRI INTO SAT. HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BEHIND THE
LOW SAT NT INTO SUN.

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 245AM MON...DETERIORATING FLYING CONDITIONS ON TAP NOW THROUGH
EARLY MORNING AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TIED TO A BROAD SFC LOW CURRENTLY
OVER KENTUCKY APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECTING
MVFR CIGS TO GRADUALLY DEVELOPS AS ATLC MSTR CONTINUES TO INCREASE
WITH SE WINDS THROUGH EARLY MORNING. SHOWERS ALSO EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE AREA WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP BTWN
10-16Z AS SFC BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. STRONG GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE SHOWERS WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION...AND HAVE HANDLED THIS WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR NOW. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS THROUGH MORNING AS WELL WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH
INSTABILITY LOOKS MARGINAL AND UPSTREAM LIGHTNING HAS BEEN RATHER
ISOLATED SO KEPT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW...BUT DID INCLUDE A CB GROUP
AND WILL AMEND AS NEEDED. ISOLATED IFR WILL BE PSBL IN ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS/TSTMS THAT MOVE THROUGH. LLWS CRITERIA EXPECTED TO BE MET
OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS WHEN WINDS WILL NOT BE MIXING TO SFC AS
WELL THROUGH EARLY MORNING SO CONTINUED PREVIOUS TAF THINKING ON
THAT WITH SE/S JET AROUND 35-45KT JUST ABOVE THE SFC. DEEP MSTR
EXPECTED TO PUSH OFFSHORE THIS AFTN WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR.
WINDS WILL SHIFT SW AND CONTINUE TO GUST AROUND 20KT THIS AFTN.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LOW PROBABILITY FOR
MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE AS UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. MAINLY VFR TUE AFTN THROUGH THU WITH DRY AIR AND ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT IMPACTING THE REGION. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH WED NIGHT BUT ONLY LOOKS TO CREATE A WIND SHIFT TO
NORTH AT THIS POINT. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND SUB VFR CONDS
EXPECTED FRI AS NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION.

.MARINE...
AS OF 345AM MON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE SE/S WINDS EXPECTED
NOW THROUGH ABOUT 18Z ALL BUT ALBEMARLE SOUND...THEN SHIFT SW AND
DIMINISH A BIT FROM SW TO NE AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SW BECOMING W FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASING TO
ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN MOST WATERS TONIGHT AND ESP TUE AS LOW PRES
STRENGTHENS N OF THE AREA. THIS CONTINUES THROUGH TUE NIGHT THEN
DIMINISHES INTO WED AS LOW PRES LIFTS WELL NE OF AREA AND HIGH
PRES RIDGES ON FROM THE SOUTH. MOST OF THE 00Z MODELS ARE THEN IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH A BRIEF SURGE OF 15-20KT NLY WINDS INTO THU
MORNING. THE EXCEPTION IS THE ECMWF WHICH REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH
STALLING THE BOUNDARY OVER OUR NRN/CENTRAL WATERS EARLY THU.
CONSIDERING THIS IS AN OUTLIER AND CLIMATOLOGY WOULD SUGGEST THE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH...HAVE SHOWED THE WINDS SHIFTING NORTH
INTO EARLY THU. REGARDLESS EXPECTED THE POST FRONTAL HIGH TO BE
RATHER PROGRESSIVE SO RETURN FLOW SHOULD REDEVELOP BY THU EVENING.
ANOTHER FRONT EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING N/NE WINDS ON FRI...BUT
MADE NO CHANGES TO WINDS THIS TIME FRAME JUST YET.

SHORT PERIOD SE/S WAVE SYSTEM PICKING UP AS EXPECTED AND CONTINUE TO
SHOW AN AREA OF 10-12 FT SEAS SHIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE SRN AND
CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY AFTN...MAINLY BEYOND 10NM. NRN WATERS
WILL BE A COUPLE FEET SMALLER WITH LESS EXPOSURE TO THIS FETCH. SEAS
COME DOWN A FEW FEET LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN THE ADVISORY RANGE ESP FOR CENTRAL/SOUTH WATERS THROUGH TUE NIGHT
AS SW/W FLOW INCREASES AGAIN. SEAS GRADUALLY COME DOWN AOB 4FT BY
WED AFTN. SHORT PERIOD N WAVE ENERGY PICKS UP TO 3-5FT ON THU BEHIND
BACK DOOR FRONT FOR NRN WATERS...SMALLER SOUTH. SEAS MAY INCREASE
AGAIN ON FRI WITH NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM BUT STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DETAILS AT THIS POINT.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154-
     156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150.

SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...SJ
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...MW